Global Central Banks Ramp Up Inflation Fight

Mabanki apakati padziko lonse lapansi akukweza chiwongola dzanja pamtengo wowopsa pomwe kukwera kwamitengo kukupitilira ndikulowa m’mitundu yambiri yazinthu ndi ntchito, zomwe zikupangitsa kuti chuma chapadziko lonse chiziyenda bwino pangongole zodula, masheya otsika ndi ma bond – mwina – chikoka chakuthwa mu ntchito zachuma.

Ndi mphindi yosiyana ndi zomwe mayiko apadziko lonse akhala akukumana nazo m’zaka makumi ambiri, pamene mayiko padziko lonse lapansi akuyesera kukweza mitengo mofulumira asanakhale gawo lokhalitsa lachuma.

Kutsika kwamitengo kwadutsa m’maiko ambiri omwe akutukuka komanso omwe akutukuka kumene kuyambira koyambirira kwa 2021 pomwe kufunikira kwakukulu kwa katundu kudakumana ndi kuchepa komwe kumabwera chifukwa cha mliri. Mabanki apakati adakhala miyezi ingapo akuyembekeza kuti chuma chitsegulidwenso ndipo njira zotumizira zitseguke, kuchepetsa zovuta zopezeka, komanso kuti ndalama za ogula zibwerere mwakale. Izi sizinachitike, ndipo nkhondo ku Ukraine yangokulitsa mkhalidwewo mwa kusokoneza mafuta ndi chakudya, ndikupangitsa mitengo kukhala yokwera kwambiri.

Opanga mfundo zachuma padziko lonse lapansi adayamba kuyankha mwachangu chaka chino, pomwe mabanki apakati 75 akukweza chiwongola dzanja, ambiri kuchokera kutsika zakale. Ngakhale opanga mfundo sangachite zambiri kuti akhale ndi mitengo yokwera kwambiri yamagetsi, kubwereketsa kokwera kungathandize kuti ogula ndi bizinesi azichedwetsa kuti apereke mpata wopeza katundu ndi ntchito zosiyanasiyana kuti kukwera kwamitengo kusapitirire mpaka kalekale.

European Central Bank ikumana sabata ino ndipo ikuyembekezeka kukwera koyamba kuyambira 2011, yomwe akuluakulu adawonetsa kuti mwina ingokhala gawo limodzi la kotala koma mwina idzatsatiridwa ndi kusuntha kwakukulu mu Seputembala.

Mabanki ena apakati ayamba kale kusuntha mwamphamvu, pomwe akuluakulu aku Canada kupita ku Philippines akutenga kukwera kwamitengo m’masabata aposachedwa pomwe akuwopa kuti ogula ndi osunga ndalama ayamba kuyembekezera mitengo yokwera pang’onopang’ono – kusintha komwe kungapangitse kukwera kwamitengo kukhala kosatha. mawonekedwe achuma. Akuluakulu a Federal Reserve nawonso afulumira kuyankha. Iwo adakweza ndalama zobwereketsa mu June kwambiri kuyambira 1994 ndipo adanena kuti kusuntha kwakukulu ndikotheka, ngakhale angapo m’masiku aposachedwa anena kuti kufulumizitsanso si dongosolo lawo lomwe amalikonda la msonkhano womwe ukubwera wa Julayi komanso kuti gawo lachiwiri lachitatu kotala- Kuwonjezeka kwa mfundo ndizotheka.

Pamene chiwongola dzanja chikudumpha padziko lonse lapansi, kupanga ndalama zomwe zakhala zotsika mtengo kwazaka zambiri kubwereka, zikuyambitsa mantha pakati pa osunga ndalama kuti chuma chapadziko lonse chiziyenda pang’onopang’ono – ndikuti mayiko ena atha kugwera m’mavuto ovuta. Mitengo ya zinthu, yomwe ina ikhonza kukhala ngati chiwongolero cha momwe anthu amafunira komanso thanzi lazachuma padziko lonse lapansi, yatsika pamene osunga ndalama akuchulukirachulukira. Akuluakulu azachuma padziko lonse lapansi achenjeza kuti zomwe zikubwerazi zitha kukhala zovuta pomwe mabanki apakati asintha ndondomeko komanso nkhondo yaku Ukraine ikukulitsa kusatsimikizika.

“Ikhala 2022 yovuta – ndipo mwina 2023 yolimba kwambiri, yokhala ndi chiwopsezo chochulukirachulukira,” atero a Kristalina Georgieva, woyang’anira wamkulu wa International Monetary Fund mu blog Lachitatu. Mayi Georgieva ananena kuti mabanki apakati akuyenera kuchitapo kanthu ndi kukwera kwa mitengo, ponena kuti “kuchitapo kanthu panopa sikupweteka kwambiri kusiyana ndi zomwe zidzachitike pambuyo pake.”

Mayi Georgieva adanenanso kuti pafupifupi magawo atatu mwa magawo atatu a mabungwe omwe amatsatira ndalamazo adakweza chiwongoladzanja kuyambira July 2021. Chuma chotukuka chawakweza ndi 1.7 peresenti pa avareji, pamene maiko omwe akutukuka akuyenda ndi 3 peresenti.

M’zaka zaposachedwa, misika yomwe ikubwera nthawi zambiri yakweza chiwongola dzanja poyembekezera kuti Fed imayenda pang’onopang’ono komanso mosasunthika popewa kusintha kwakukulu kwa ndalama zawo, zomwe zimadalira pang’ono kusiyana kwa chiwongola dzanja kudutsa malire. Koma kuchuluka kwa mitengoyi ndi kosiyana: Kukwera kwamitengo kukuthamanga kwambiri m’zaka makumi ambiri m’malo ambiri, komanso mabanki apakati otukuka, kuphatikiza European Central Bank, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Canada ndi Reserve. Bank of Australia, akujowina – kapena atha kujowina – Fed pakukankhira mitengo mwachangu.

“Sichinthu chomwe tachiwona m’zaka makumi angapo zapitazi,” atero a Bruce Kasman, katswiri wazachuma komanso wamkulu wa kafukufuku wazachuma padziko lonse ku JPMorgan Chase.

Nthawi yomaliza yomwe mayiko akulu akulu adakwezera mitengo motsatana kuti athane ndi kukwera kwachangu chotere kunali m’ma 1980, pomwe mabanki apakati padziko lonse lapansi anali osiyana: Chigwirizano cha ndalama za yuro chamayiko 19 chomwe ECB imakhazikitsa mfundo zake kunalibe. ndipo misika yazachuma padziko lonse lapansi idatukuka pang’ono.

Kuti mabanki ambiri apakati tsopano akuyang’anizana ndi kukwera kwa inflation – ndikuyesera kuwongolera mwa kuchepetsa chuma chawo – kumawonjezera mwayi wa chipwirikiti cha msika monga nthawi ya mitengo yotsika kwambiri komanso pamene mayiko ndi makampani akuyesera kusintha kusintha kwa ndalama. Kusintha kumeneku kungakhudze ngati mayiko ndi mabizinesi atha kugulitsa ngongole ndi zisungiko zina kuti apeze ndalama.

“Ndalama zalimba chifukwa cha kukwera, kutsika kwamitengo yamitengo, kusatsimikizika kwadziko komwe kumayambitsa nkhondo yaku Russia yolimbana ndi Ukraine, komanso kuchepa kwa kukula kwapadziko lonse,” Janet L. Yellen, mlembi wa US Treasury, adatero polankhula sabata yatha. “Tsopano, ndalama zogulira ndalama zayamba kutuluka m’misika yomwe ikubwera.”

Pamisika yazachuma, kusintha kwa chiwongola dzanja chokwera kungakhale “kovuta, palibe njira yochitira izi,” atero a George Goncalves, wamkulu wa US macro strategy ku MUFG Securities Americas. Ndipo mitengo ikakwera, mitengo ndi zinthu zina zimatha kutsika mpaka kalekale, popeza osunga ndalama amatha kubweza ndalama zambiri pamabizinesi omwe alibe chiopsezo, monga ngongole ya boma.

“Chilimbikitso chinali kuthamangitsa zokolola, ndipo izi zitha kukankhira misika kuti ikhale yotsika mtengo kuposa momwe ikanakhalira potengera zofunikira,” adatero Goncalves.

Zomwe zimachitika nthawi imodzi zimawonjezeranso chiwopsezo choti mayiko ena agwa m’mavuto pomwe ogula ndi makampani akubweza ndalama zomwe amawononga.

A Kasman akuti United States ndi Western Europe ali ndi mwayi wa 40 peresenti wa kugwa kwachuma mkati mwa chaka chamawa. Chiwopsezo chimenecho chimachokera kumayendedwe apakati a banki komanso chipwirikiti chankhondo yaku Russia ku Ukraine, zomwe sizikuwonetsa kutha. Koma ngati kugwa kwachuma kungapewedwe tsopano – kusiya ulova wochepa, ogula akuwonongabe ndalama komanso kukwera kwa inflation – zitha kutanthauza kuti Fed ndi mabanki ena apakati akuyenera kukweza mitengo pambuyo pake kuti achepetse kukula ndikuchepetsa mitengo, adatero.

Akuluakulu a Fed ati akufunabe kupanga mainjiniya omwe nthawi zambiri amawatcha “kutsetsereka kofewa,” momwe kubwereketsa ndi kuwononga ndalama zoziziritsa kukhosi kuti kukwera kwa malipiro ndi mitengo ikhale yocheperako, koma osati mochuluka kotero kuti kuyika chuma pamavuto akulu komanso opweteka. kutsika.

Koma kukwera kwa mitengo kwakhala kovutirapo. Chiwerengero chaposachedwa cha Consumer Price Index ku United States chinaposa zomwe akatswiri amayembekezera pa 9.1 peresenti. Ku Canada, kukwera mitengo kwa zinthu kukuyenda mofulumira kwambiri kuyambira 1983. Ku United Kingdom, mofananamo kukukwera kwa zaka 40.

Izi zikugogomezera kuti zinthu zapadziko lonse lapansi, kuphatikiza kuchuluka kwa zinthu zomwe anthu amagula monga magalimoto ndi zovala komanso kukwera mtengo kwamafuta ndi zakudya, zikupangitsa kuti mitengo ichuluke. Ikufotokozanso chifukwa chake mabanki ambiri apakati akuyankha chimodzimodzi – komanso mwachangu – kuyankha, ngakhale kutero kumawonjezera chiwopsezo cha kuchepa kwachuma.

Bank of England inali banki yayikulu yoyamba kuyambitsa chiwongola dzanja mu Disembala ndipo yakhala ikukweza mitengo kuyambira pamenepo. Opanga ndondomeko akuda nkhawa kwambiri ndi kukwera kwa mitengo komwe kumapangitsa kuti pakhale zovuta zotsika mtengo ku Britain ndipo akuda nkhawa kuti mitengo yokwera ikhoza kukulitsa mavuto azachuma. Nthawi yomweyo, awonetsanso kuti atha kuchita zinthu mwamphamvu, potengera zomwe anzawo padziko lonse lapansi angachite. Pali “kufunitsitsa – ngati pangafunike – kuti akhazikike mwachangu,” a Huw Pill, katswiri wazachuma ku Bank of England, adatero mwezi uno.

“Mabanki ambiri apakati akuwona izi ngati funso lomwe lingakhalepo lokhudza kukwera kwa mitengo komanso kukwera kwa mitengo,” atero a Matthew Luzzetti, wamkulu wazachuma ku US ku Deutsche Bank.

Ndalamazo zinakweza mitengo ndi kotala mu March, theka la mfundo mu May, ndi magawo atatu mwa magawo anayi peresenti mu June. Ngakhale akuluakulu aboma adaneneratu kuti apitilizabe izi mu Julayi, awonetsanso kuti chiwonjezeko chokulirapo ndi chotheka.

“Inflation iyenera kukhala cholinga chathu, msonkhano uliwonse komanso tsiku lililonse,” atero a Christopher Waller, bwanamkubwa wa Fed, polankhula sabata yatha. “Zosankha zamtengo wapatali zomwe anthu ndi mabizinesi amapanga tsiku lililonse zimatengera zomwe akuyembekezera pakukwera kwamitengo yamtsogolo, zomwe zimadalira ngati akukhulupirira kuti Fed ikudzipereka mokwanira ku cholinga chake cha kukwera kwa mitengo.”

Bank of Canada yapita kale kusuntha kwathunthu, zomwe zidadabwitsa osunga ndalama sabata yatha ndikuyenda kwawo kwakukulu kuyambira 1998, pomwe akuchenjeza za zina zomwe zikubwera.

“Chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwachuma, kukwera kwa inflation komanso kukulirakulira, komanso mabizinesi ambiri ndi ogula akuyembekeza kuti kukwera kwa mitengo kupitilirabe kwa nthawi yayitali, Bungwe Lolamulira lidaganiza zokweza chiwongola dzanja chokwera,” bungwe lokhazikitsa mfundo za banki yayikulu. adatero m’mawu ake.

Banki yayikulu ku Philippines idadabwitsanso osunga ndalama pakuwonjezeka kwa magawo atatu mwezi uno, ndipo mabanki ena apakati asintha kwambiri. Zochita zambiri zikubwera. Mabanki apakati padziko lonse lapansi akhala akuwonekeratu kuti akuyembekeza kupitiliza kubwereketsa ndalama zokwera mpaka m’dzinja.

“Sindinganene kuti tafika pachimake,” atero a Brendan McKenna, katswiri wazachuma ku Wells Fargo. “Titha kuchita zankhanza kwambiri kuchokera pano.”

Funso lofunika kwambiri ndilakuti zimenezi zidzatanthauza chiyani pa chuma cha padziko lonse. Banki Yadziko Lonse mu June idaneneratu mu lipoti kuti kukula kwapadziko lonse lapansi kudzachepa kwambiri chaka chino koma kukhalabe ndi chiyembekezo. Komabe, pali “chiwopsezo chachikulu” cha mkhalidwe womwe kukula ukukulirakulira komanso kukwera kwamitengo kumakhalabe kokwera, a David Malpass, wamkulu wa World Bank, adalemba.

Ngati inflation ikhazikika, kapena kusonyeza zizindikiro za kusintha kwa ziyembekezo, mabanki apakati angafunikire kuyankha mwamphamvu kuposa momwe alili panopa, ndikuphwanya mwadala kukula.

Bambo Kasman adati funso lotseguka, likafika ku Fed, ndilakuti: “Kodi afika pati poganiza kuti akuyenera kutimenya m’mano, pano?”