Jim Cramer of CNBC stated on Monday that he thinks the mid-June stock market low will remain the bottom of this dreadful selling year. He did admit that it won’t be simple and that there are many things that seem to be working against Wall Street bulls.
When anchoring “Mad Money” from Seattle, Cramer said, “Sometimes I just want to urge these doubters, as I continuously tell strangers, don’t give up the ship.”
Despite Monday’s rise, which expanded on last week’s surge, Cramer said he definitely sees why the bears appear to be in control of the situation. In reality, the S&P 500’s gain last week ended a losing trend of three weeks.
After weeks of selling, might we be witnessing a bear market rally? Naturally,” Cramer replied. After all, September is the worst month for equities in the entire year. And he warned that the selling would go up again following a disastrous August, which is typically a relatively solid month for stocks. However, he does not believe that the market would decline below its mid-June low.
Regardless of what Tuesday’s consumer price index for August actually says, inflation is a concern, according to Cramer. Investors are debating whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75 basis points or 50 basis points later this month, and the major question is just how big of a problem there is. The former would represent the third consecutive raise of that size. The market is almost universally betting on that.
The bear arguments that the government’s environmental policy is not really market-friendly, that there will be more layoffs in corporate America, and that tech is still significantly overvalued are also acknowledged by Cramer.
All of this is true, but Cramer is more concerned with inflation improving than worsening because commodity prices have long since reached their top. He also supports a larger rate increase of 75 basis points to help control wage inflation.
Aside from all of that, Cramer believes that the Russians being driven out of Ukraine is a genuinely beneficial market force. He predicted it would result in a sharp decline in oil, gasoline, and natural gas prices, all of which had increased owing to the war’s disruptions. The market would benefit greatly from that.
Naturally, the entire conflict has resulted in a horrific humanitarian catastrophe, but Cramer noted that a victory for Ukraine would be extremely positive for the stock market. “Same with food costs. And the euro might eventually make a comeback, enabling our multinational corporations to profit more abroad.